Original analysis

Findings from the federal loan record that are not published anywhere else. Method stated in full on every piece, so you can check the work rather than take it on trust.

2026-07-28

504 borrowers default at less than half the 7(a) rate

We measured every SBA loan approved since 2010 — 890,648 of them — and the gap survives every control we could apply. But it is concentrated almost entirely in smaller loans, and above $2 million it disappears.

Using this

Journalists and researchers are welcome to cite any figure here with a link back. If you want the underlying working, or a cut of the data we have not published, write to corrections@sbadecoded.com — we would rather you got it right than guessed.